The lasting effects of Britain’s departure from the EU have been heavily debated since last week’s referendum result, with the impact on business and industry at the forefront of discussion.
On such a controversial issue its no surprise that opinions across the automotive industry are divided.
John Leech, Head of Automotive at KPMG UK, predicts that the industry will be directly hit: “As recent surveys showed, the automotive industry is anticipated to be one of the sectors most impacted by the vote to leave the EU,” he continued. “In recent months we have seen some industry commentators believe that UK new car sales could top 3 million in the coming years. This has now become highly unlikely and I now forecast that new car sales will fall to 2.5m cars in 2017.”
However, Wendy Williamson, Chief Executive of the IAAF, disagrees: “We do not envisage any immediate impact on the UK aftermarket and will continue to work closely with our colleagues throughout Europe to see what this result means for the UK independent aftermarket and the automotive industry as a whole.”
Daniel Kirkpatrick, Team Manager for Automotive at JAM Recruitment, is apprehensive about the effect that Brexit will have on skilled workers: “The decision to leave could lead to the UK suffering from an even greater skills shortage. The automotive industry is not in a position where we have the trained home-grown manufacturing and engineering workforce that would allow us to continue operating at the cutting edge of automotive design and development. The current skills shortage within the industry means we’re increasingly looking to other nations to source workers who posses the required skillset to fill specific roles.”
“With the successful Brexit result, doubts will now be cast as to how freely the UK could export goods to other European nations,” he adds, “in turn casting doubt over whether organisations would choose to remain operating within the UK.”
Whether or not the Government is able to secure a fair trade deal in the future remains to be seen, but the uncertainty alone could have damaging effects according to Rupert Pontin, Director of Valuations for Glass’s: “Over the next few months and years, the road is likely to be very bumpy. Markets will be affected, as will the value of the pound, and we expect to see consumer confidence tail off until the view of the way forward becomes clearer. For the motor industry, all of these developments are very likely to have negative effects including a period of instability for new and used car sales, as well as an increase in pre-reg activity and downward pressure on values.”
But it’s not all doom and gloom insists BM Catalyst’s Managing Director Toby Massey, “What version of Britain awaits us on the other side of these troubled waters is potentially a much more prosperous place – so there’s room for much optimism as well as natural trepidation.”
Amongst the conflict in opinion though, one thing is for sure, the UK industry will need protecting in order to remain the most competitive place in Europe for automotive investment, a sentiment seconded by SMMT’s Chief Executive Mike Hawes. “Government must now maintain economic stability and secure a deal with the EU which safeguards UK automotive interests. This includes securing tariff-free access to European and other global markets, ensuring we can recruit talent from the EU and the rest of the world.”
“We must now provide the advice and support that our members need to leverage the benefit, but also minimise any disruption of this change during this transitional period,” agrees RMI Bodyshops’ Executive Director Jason Moseley. “We will continue to monitor this situation and will keep our members updated of any potential risks”.
